In this ever changing technology focused world, the battles lines are being drawn. A new technology platform is maturing and it is very mobile.
As important as laptops and notebooks have become in the lives of many, I am absolutely convinced that mobile devices the size of cell phones will start to replace PCs for users as manufacturers diversify this market over the next five years.
Today, Gartner delivered the ‘kicker’. They have predicted that smartphone shipments worldwide will grow year over year to the point where they will soon outnumber laptop unit shipments. Gartner has also predicted that end users will spend more on a smartphone than they will on notebooks.
I know I am going to upset a number of people by making this statement, but contrary to what some parties believe, I do not think that Apple’s iPhone OS will win the mobile device war against devices with Android OS.
The good news (for me) is that Gartner has recently provided some analysis that supports my view by predicting that by 2012, the number of devices with Android OS will exceed devices with iPhone or Blackberry OS.
Although the iPhone looks like it has a head start, the question of its survival does not rest solely on the premise that is has a diverse application base. Other factors are equally as important as a killer application that everyone ‘just has to have’. One of the other key factors that determines the success of a platform is that it has an engaged community of third party vendors and suppliers who can make money from it.
As much as my iPhone using friends try to convince me otherwise, the fact is that applications alone do not provide the base for a growing and thriving economic community and the Apple model is a closed one. It actively discourages the establishment of supporting economic communities.
With Android OS now being deployed on a number of connected devices, such as ebook readers, the battle lines have shifted more in Android’s favor.
Don’t get me wrong, I do not believe that the iPhone will disappear in the near future. There is a diverse market out there and customers all have differing needs. Apple’s iPhone will, as a minimum, retain a niche market.
It is also important to remember that Apple has been here before. It is not the first time Apple has gone to battle and lost the war. The important question is – can Apple take the learning from its battles in the past?
The future will reveal the answer. What do you think?
Filed under: Opinion, Technology, Thoughts
